Location: Lake Almanor, CA
|The PFMC is predicting some HUGE numbers of fall-run Chinook for California this year. 800,000 for the Central Valley, and 1.6 MILLION for the Klamath-Trinity system. The last time we came anywhere close to these numbers is 2002 for the Central Valley (~700,000) and 1984 for the K-T (1.4 million).
PFMC claims they've altered the equations they use to predict run sizes to be more conservative in their estimates. Using the old model, they would've predicted 2.1 million adults returning to the K-T (uh huh...).
Now I'm one of those folks who remains very, very skeptical of the PFMC's estimates. But even if these estimates are waaaay off this year, the runs should still be the strongest we've seen in several years. You'd figure if the runs of 3- and 4-year-olds were going to be so enormous this year, that ocean anglers must've been catching TONS of shaker salmon during the 2011 season. Did this occur? Were there tons of shakers being caught in 2011?
What cha lookin at my gut fer?